US ADP Employment Data Falls Short of Expectations, Copper Prices Rose Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM, January 9: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,020.5/mt, initially moved downward into a narrow rangebound fluctuation, hitting a low of $8,956/mt. It then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $9,061/mt near the session's end, and finally closed at $9,051/mt, up by 0.79%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest stood at 262,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2502 contract opened at 74,300 yuan/mt, initially hitting a low of 74,220 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward. It reached a high of 74,830 yuan/mt near the session's end and finally closed at 74,780 yuan/mt, up by 0.46%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest stood at 141,000 lots. Macro side, US December ADP employment data recorded 122,000, below the market expectation of 140,000, marking the lowest level since August 2024. Initial jobless claims last week were recorded at 201,000, the lowest since the week of February 17, 2024. Signs of a cooling labour market may lead the US to keep interest rates unchanged in January despite persistently high inflation. Additionally, sources revealed that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal grounds for imposing widespread tariffs, which boosted the US dollar index and overall limited copper price gains. Fundamentally, the market saw tight availability of spot copper cathode, while downstream demand in areas surrounding Shanghai continued to weaken, leading to overall moderate market transactions. Spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain stable. In terms of prices, the December meeting minutes indicated that the time to slow the pace of interest rate cuts has been reached or is near. The US dollar index is expected to remain high, limiting copper price gains.